A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
